According to BTG Pactual, although Brazil’s exposure to the US market is generally limited, products such as beef, ethanol, sugar and coffee, which were not exempted, will suffer the most direct impact. Minerva is the most exposed company, with approximately 5% of its revenue linked to the US. While the company has geographic diversification, part of its production could be redirected to lower-value markets, which would put pressure on its average prices.
In the case of Jalles Machado, about 50% of its organic sugar exports go to the US, representing around 5% of its total revenue. In a conservative scenario, BTG estimates a potential -3% impact on 2026 Ebitda.
In the ethanol sector, the tariff will rise from 12% to 50%, although the US accounts for only 16% of Brazilian exports, compared to more than 60% five years ago.
In the coffee market, the US is the destination for 16% of Brazil’s exports over the past 12 months. Part of that volume could be redirected to the domestic market, creating pressure on local prices, reported Money Times.
